Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 2.115479 2.242013 2.375320 2.526767 2.694721 2.876049 3.087665
2025-07-20 1.958104 2.136793 2.334537 2.571624 2.850928 3.173103 3.578282
2025-07-27 1.858822 2.070100 2.312183 2.614116 2.986569 3.439429 4.045786
2025-08-03 1.755407 1.983855 2.252361 2.597323 3.038280 3.597529 4.386572
2025-08-10 1.671141 1.911344 2.199635 2.579343 3.079794 3.738608 4.713833
2025-08-17 1.595928 1.843440 2.145726 2.552343 3.102620 3.851373 5.009577
2025-08-24 1.530030 1.782363 2.095214 2.523884 3.117860 3.950825 5.293745
2025-08-31 1.484743 1.744156 2.070637 2.526393 3.173370 4.109804 5.688627
2025-09-07 1.449592 1.716571 2.057456 2.542052 3.246700 4.299887 6.160896
2025-09-14 1.397678 1.664548 2.008824 2.504707 3.238584 4.362100 6.420437
2025-09-21 1.349441 1.615209 1.961210 2.465476 3.223765 4.410594 6.660366
2025-09-28 1.301776 1.564736 1.909724 2.417546 3.191689 4.426808 6.840141
2025-10-05 1.283921 1.553893 1.912556 2.449259 3.286325 4.666162 7.509230
2025-10-12 1.269948 1.547558 1.921055 2.489388 3.396965 4.945655 8.328620
2025-10-19 1.256880 1.541707 1.929596 2.529514 3.510166 5.243177 9.269729
2025-10-26 1.227414 1.512034 1.902746 2.513592 3.527915 5.364025 9.821761
2025-11-02 1.199440 1.483452 1.876232 2.496551 3.542025 5.478769 10.390175
2025-11-09 1.170595 1.452715 1.845373 2.470952 3.539078 5.558778 10.888454
2025-11-16 1.142930 1.422810 1.814637 2.443961 3.531564 5.628306 11.379116
2025-11-23 1.124948 1.406075 1.802645 2.446341 3.576658 5.812940 12.282467
2025-11-30 1.111283 1.395030 1.798588 2.461193 3.645324 6.057196 13.483285
2025-12-07 1.084929 1.364999 1.765023 2.425767 3.617530 6.082942 13.939672
2025-12-14 1.059264 1.335360 1.731198 2.388534 3.584025 6.092246 14.344965